Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales UFC Vegas 106 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales odds suggest Burns is heading toward his fourth loss in a row. He’s a huge +500 underdog against Morales, who’s coming to Vegas hoping to get his record to 18-0.

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: UFC Apex in Vegas
• Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN+

Can Gilbert Burns Derail the Michael Morales Hype Train?

Gilbert Burns is turning 39 this summer, and given that he lost his last three fights, this guy’s UFC future looks uncertain. This goes especially if he loses on May 17, which, judging by UFC Vegas 106 odds, seems likely to happen.

But the fact that he’s nearly forty means that he’s got plenty of experience. The Brazilian fighter has been fighting professionally since 2012, winning 22 fights and losing 8 so far. The problem is that three of those losses happened in his last three fights. However, there’s a caveat – he lost to some of the best welterweights in the UFC. 

First, Belal Muhammad beat him by a unanimous decision in a 5-round fight that saw the two exchange plenty of strikes without taking the fight to the ground. In the following fight, he put his wrestling to use, landing seven takedowns against Jack Della Maddalena – it didn’t help as the Aussie knocked him out in the third round.

Then, in his most recent fight, Burns lost to Sean Brady by unanimous decision. He really got beaten up in that fight. Brady landed 130 significant strikes while absorbing just 47. He also completely outwrestled Burns, landing 7 takedowns, while taking down just once.

The Brazilian’s poor performance against Brady is probably the No. 1 reason why his UFC Vegas 106 odds are +500. Oddsmakers obviously expect him to get KO-ed by Michael Morales. In the next section of our UFC Vegas 106 preview, we’ll explain why they might be right.

Is Michael Morales the Next Big Thing in the UFC Welterweight Division?

Michael Morales is 17-0 right now, with a 5-0 record in the UFC. He hasn’t fought too many elite fighters, though. In fact, his toughest opponent so far was Neil Magny, whom he fought last August.

It looked like a tricky matchup on paper, but the Ecuadorian fighter got the job done in under five minutes. He KO-ed Magny near the end of the first round. Before that, he had only been hit five times, suffering limited damage.

This is actually no surprise as he’s a hell of a kickboxer. He lands 5.42 significant strikes a minute, which is one of the highest numbers in the UFC Welterweight Division. In fact, there are only three welterweights in the UFC who land more strikes than him – Daniel Rodriguez, Jack Della Maddalena (the new champ), and Gabe Green.

He’s a fantastic striker, but this doesn’t mean he’s a one-trick pony. On the contrary, he’s got plenty of other weapons in his arsenal, including wrestling. In fact, before switching to MMA, he had plenty of success in judo in his native Ecuador.

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction

While we think Morales can wrestle with Burns, we think that getting too close to a guy who’s a 3^rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu would be dumb. Instead, Morales will probably want to turn this into a striking duel, which is what he excels at. If this scenario plays out, the fight will probably end in a KO win for Morales.

Pick: Michael Morales