Germany’s Gambling Regulator and Stakeholders at Odds over Actual Channelization Rates

The German gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), has produced its annual report, in which it highlighted what has been achieved with regard to making the regulated market a more competitive and attractive space for local players.

Illegal Market a Sliver of the Gambling Market? It’s Hard to Believe

The report indicated that gross gaming revenue in the country has improved by 5% year-over-year to €14.4 billion and has been on an upswing trend. Another important part of the report was its focus on the illegal gambling sector, which has been a persistent pet peeve for local stakeholders.

Most licensed companies have urged the GGL ever-so-slightly to act more boldly and ensure that its rules are aligned with the realities, that some operators can target local customers better than law-abiding companies, which are hamstrung by over-regulation.

The GGL said that in 2024, it was able to register 858 websites that were operating in Germany without a license by 212 operators. According to the regulator, the total gambling spend with these operators is anywhere between €500 million and €600 million, a slight increase for the lower estimate from 2023.

However, this amount is only 3% or 4% of the total gambling market, the regulator said. While the figures seem reassuring, there has been a major disagreement from the private sector. Most operators have argued that the numbers presented by the GGL are not entirely accurate and are in fact, a major understatement.

Approximately 50% of the gambling market in Germany is said to be dominated by offshore gambling operators, a figure that the regulator has vehemently denied being accurate. In 2024, 40% of the revenue was generated onshore, a report by H2 Gambling Capital stated, but this number is projected to decline to 36% of online gambling in 2025.

Conversely, the regulator remains optimistic that it will be able to see further improvement in the local market. GGL has hailed the recent changes to Google’s advertising guidelines, which should help block non-regulated gambling entities in the country and stop them from proliferating.  

The Industry Remains Skeptical of the Regulator’s Putative Successes

The industry’s stalwarts, however, including Christian Heins, Tipico’s director of iGaming, have expressed doubt. Heins has criticized the methodology that GGL has used (as have other observers).

“The online casino black market isn’t separately quantified in the report. Instead, the GGL boldly claims that the combined black market for online casinos, sports betting, poker, and secondary lotteries amounts to €500–600 million in GGR (gross gaming revenue). I believe that the online casino black market alone could easily be worth €1.5–2 billion in GGR,” he explained.

Overall, the industry remains skeptical of the successes that the GGL boasts about in its annual reports.