Cuomo Takes Back Lead in NYC Mayor Race Betting as Mamdani Gains Ground

Just before the key Democratic primary in New York City’s race for mayor, Andrew Cuomo, the former Governor, has grabbed a narrow advantage over Zohran Mamdani, a State Assemblymember, on major betting sites. This shift points to a lively and hard-to-predict contest.

Cuomo Edges Ahead in NYC Mayoral Odds After Mamdani’s Brief Lead 

Cuomo’s lead, though small, shows a change from Monday when Mamdani passed him on prediction market websites Polymarket and Kalshi. This switch happened after an Emerson College survey revealed the progressive lawmaker had a slight edge in a ranked-choice voting situation. The poll indicated Mamdani was gaining support from candidates with lower rankings, helping him move ahead of Cuomo in later voting rounds.

By Tuesday night, Kalshi and Polymarket showed Cuomo with a slim advantage, each giving him odds around 53%, compared to Mamdani‘s 47%, reported Forbes. These numbers differ from Sunday’s predictions, where Cuomo led by over 70% on both sites. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called this change one of the biggest his exchange has seen, crediting it to many young, early voters supporting Mamdani.

Despite ups and downs in betting odds, the overall race remains tight. Cuomo’s campaign has gained support from big-name donors like Michael Bloomberg, Kenneth Langone, and Bill Ackman. He has highlighted his leadership experience and middle-of-the-road appeal. Backing from people like former President Bill Clinton has strengthened Cuomo‘s image as a seasoned leader ready to tackle the city’s problems.

Ranked-Choice Voting and Demographic Shifts Make NYC Mayoral Primary a Complex Battle

Mamdani has gotten the nod from left-wing figures such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, picking up steam with younger and liberal voters. His plans include bold ideas like expanding rent control and city-run grocery stores. These proposals have fired up grassroots supporters but made business leaders wary.

Political strategists believe the race shows deeper population changes in New York after the pandemic. Some point out that rich people leaving during COVID-19 has changed who votes in the city, giving more power to progressive voices. Others highlight how closed primaries leave out many independent voters.

As people vote, the result might depend on ranked-choice counts that could take several rounds. With no clear leader and lots of uncertainty, experts think that prediction markets, even though they move fast, might not grasp all the complex factors at work. The Democrat who wins will face little competition in November’s main election in this very blue city, making the primary crucial for the city’s political future.