Deportivo Toluca F.C. are 100% in the 2025 Leagues Cup with wins over three MLS teams: Columbus Crew (on penalties after 2:2 in regulation), CF Montreal (2:1), and New York City FC (2:1). Can they beat another American team?
The team in question is Orlando City, which started its Leagues Cup campaign with a loss by penalties (after 1:1 in regulation) to UNAM Pumas but then went on to beat Atlas (3:1) and Necaxa (5:1). And on their return to the MLS, they destroyed their Florida-based rivals, Inter Miami, 4:1.
Toluca vs. Orlando City 2025 Leagues Cup Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toluca | -110 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Orlando City | +300 |
| Goals | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3 | -143 |
| Under 3 | +110 |
When, Where, and How to Watch?
- Place: Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson (Los Angeles), CA
- Date: Wednesday, August 20, 2025
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: Apple TV
Reasons Why Toluca are Odds-On Favorites to Win on August 20
The No. 1 reason why Deportivo Toluca F.C. are favored to beat Orlando City is that this team is the winner of the 2024-25 Mexican Apertura. In the Liga MX, this team is sitting in fourth place on the list of the richest clubs – its roster value is roughly $80 million.
In comparison, the value of Orlando City’s squad in 2025 is $50 million. Toluca’s most valuable player is their captain, Alexis Vega. The 27-year-old Mexican forward hasn’t been in his best form, though.
He only recorded one assist in the three League Cup games his team has played so far in 2025. Further, the last time he scored a goal for Toluca was back in May.
The good news for Toluca is that Vega’s partner from the attacking line, Paulinho, has been in great shape. With four goals to his name, he’s sharing the top spot on the list of highest-scoring Leagues Cup players (alongside Angel Correa).
Can Orlando City Upset the Odds?
After a slow start of their 2025 Leagues Cup campaign, the boys from Orlando scored 8 goals in the following two games. Then, they scored four against Inter Miami in the MLS.
In that game, Inter Miami had their first-choice goalkeeper Oscar Ustari between the posts, but Orlando City still managed to find the net four times. They did it by creating 21 goal chances (more than twice as many as the Herons). Ustari made eight saves that day, meaning that it could’ve been even worse for Miami.
Obviously, their attack is great, which is no surprise given that their wingers are dribbling maestro Martin Ojeda and fast-paced ex-Dortmund star, Marco Pasalic.
Their defense, however, is questionable. The fact that they allowed at least one goal in every single game they played last month means that they might be in trouble ahead of the Toluca game.
Toluca vs. Orlando City Prediction
We think that this is going to be a banger, with at least a goal on each side. This can easily turn into a goals galore if one team scores early. That said, Both Teams to Score (BTS) seems like a certainty, and the same goes for Over 2.5.
But who’s gonna win and get to play in the 2025 Leagues Cup Semifinal against the winner of the Inter Miami vs. UANL Tigres game? Our prediction is that the game will end in a draw in regulation, so the penalties will decide the victor – and it’s probably going to be Toluca.