This is a must-win situation for Steve Erceg, who lost each of his last three fights. Another loss, and Dana White might decide to terminate his UFC contract. Winning at UFC Vegas 109 is crucial for the Aussie fighter, but that’s easier said than done. The thing is that he’s fighting against Ode’ Osbourne, a well-rounded fighter with a finish rate of just under 77%.
Steve Erceg vs. Ode’ Osbourne Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | -550 |
| Ode’ Osbourne | +400 |
When, Where, and How to Watch?
- Place: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Steve Erceg’s Odds Suggest He’ll Win at UFC Vegas 109
Steve Erceg is 12-4 overall, with three of those four losses happening in his last three fights. It all started with the loss to Alexandre Pantoja in the fight for the UFC Flyweight title. Even though he was a huge betting underdog, Erceg put on a good fight and survived the whole 25 minutes.
Pantoja destroyed him with wrestling, going 9-1 in takedowns. He also won the striking battle 125-111 in significant strikes. But he didn’t finish Erceg. Unfortunately, it was a whole different story in the following fight.
Just three months after the title fight, he fought Kai Kara-France and suffered his first loss inside the distance. This happened in the final minute of the first round when the New Zealander unleashed a striking storm that ended in a TKO.
Finally, in his most recent fight (late March), Erceg lost to Brandon Moreno. On the bright side for the Aussie, the fight lasted for 25 minutes, and he did not embarrass himself at any moment. In fact, he did very well striking-wise, landing 116 strikes while absorbing just 89.
However, despite being a former freestyle wrestling champ of Australia, Erceg decided not to use his takedown skills in that fight. Our prediction is that he’ll do differently this time around, the main reason being that Ode’ Osbourne isn’t a very good wrestler.
What to Expect from Ode’ Osbourne on August 9?
Ode’ Osbourne is 13-8-1 with a 2-4 record in the last three years. It’s bad, but he’s got only himself to blame. While he sure is a very dangerous fighter with incredible striking, he’s also somewhat reckless.
He lands 3.20 significant strikes, which sounds good, but his striking accuracy is just 40%. What this means is that he misses a lot, and that gasses him out. He also gets hit a lot – 3.82 per minute on average – meaning that he’s got a negative striking differential.
Still, his biggest weakness is wrestling. He suffered at least one takedown in each of his last fights. Further, his poor ground game is what cost him in the majority of fights that he lost.
Steve Erceg vs. Ode’ Osbourne Prediction
Ode’ Osbourne looks like an ideal opponent for Steve Erceg at this point. The Australian has everything needed to absolutely destroy this guy on August 9, which is exactly what he needs at this point when his confidence is probably at a very low level.
He just needs to be careful not to get KO-ed early on – like Tyson Nam did in his fight with Osbourne three years ago. But Erceg is a smart guy and probably won’t rush anything. Instead, he’ll look to tire out his opponent and get a finish in either the fourth or fifth round.
Pick: Steve Erceg