According to a recent surge in sponsored Meta ads, Polymarket is preparing to reenter the US market, aiming to launch in time for the kickoff of the 2025 NFL season. This will mark the New York-based prediction market platform’s return to the country after it was sidelined by regulators back in 2022.
Polymarket Is Poised for a Return to the US
Many of Polymarket’s promotions are aimed at states where gambling remains illegal outside of tribal exceptions. One ad, for example, features a US map highlighting only those states without legal sports betting. Unlike last fall, when Blockratize Inc. spent nearly $1 million on Meta ads related to the 2024 election on Polymarket’s behalf, these ads list Polymarket as the purchaser. However, the distinction is largely semantic, as Blockratize operates under the Polymarket name.
While it has been absent from the US market for three years, the Polymarket remains a leading name in prediction markets, thanks to its strong international presence. Over the past 12 months, Polymarket has generated three times more Google search interest than its US-based competitor Kalshi, although that lead has narrowed to 1.6 times over the past 30 days. Polymarket also boasts larger followings on X and Instagram, and according to data from Two Circles, a greater share of its followers are also US-based compared to Kalshi’s.
Polymarket’s return to the US will benefit the company in a time when regulators have sometimes put a spanner in the works of the predictions market. For example, earlier this month, Australia prohibited Polymarket in an ACMA ban wave, effectively blocking the company’s access to the country’s sphere.
US Predictions Market Will See Competition
Speaking of Kalshi, the platform is shaping up to be Polymarket’s main competitor. This competition even has a pinch of personal rivalry. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are locked in a public war of words as both seek to position their platforms as leaders in the prediction market space. Following Polymarket’s acquisition of the QCEX exchange, Coplan referred to Kalshi as a “copycat” in a CNBC interview last month. Mansour responded in an interview with Bloomberg, dismissing the jab and framing the rivalry as a sign of market validation.
He described the increased competition as a positive development, viewing it as a strong validation of Kalshi’s business model and evidence that the prediction market space is poised for significant growth. According to Mansour, Kalshi holds a clear lead, thanks to an early and sustained commitment to building the platform legally and credibly within the US. He added that others are now attempting to replicate Kalshi’s approach and mirror the strategies it has implemented over the past several years.