Joe Pyfer broke Francis Ngannou’s punch record last year, and the sportsbooks love him for it. But while everyone’s talking about power, we’re thinking upset. We suspect that the +310 underdog Kelvin Gastelum can shock everyone at Newark’s Prudential Center. To see why, just keep on reading this Gastelum vs. Pyfer preview.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | +325 |
| Joe Pyfer | -425 |
When, Where, and How to Watch?
- Place: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
- Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: PPV
Why are Bookies Backing Joe Pyfer to Win on June 7?
Joe Pyfer hits harder than anyone in the UFC (or possibly in the world). He crushed crushing Ngannou’s PowerKube machine record by over 30% last year. Sure, that machine doesn’t win fights, but it backs up what we’ve seen in the Octagon.
Just ask Marc-André Barriault, who didn’t even last a full round against this guy. Plus, nine of Pyfer’s 13 wins have come by KO. He’s also got slick submissions in his back pocket and a killer instinct that makes him dangerous in any position.
But now he’s up against a veteran who refuses to go away. Gastelum has fought and defeated much tougher fighters than Pyfer, which is why we’re surprised that Joe’s such a huge favorite ahead of their UFC 316 clash.
Reasons Why Gastelum Can Upset the UFC 316 Odds
Kelvin Gastelum is 19-9-1, a former Ultimate Fighter winner, and the proud owner of one of the best chins in UFC history. He’s never been knocked out, despite brawling with killers like Adesanya, Whittaker, and Belfort.
Gastelum’s also got a deep wrestling base and a black belt in BJJ, which could help him neutralize Pyfer’s power if the fight hits the ground.
Most importantly, he’s super motivated to win as it would be the first time he made back-to-back wins since 2017-18. Plus, it’s very likely that he’s got beef with Pyfer after he pulled out of their March fight due to food poisoning.
Pyfer made some questionable comments about Mexican food and, well, Mexican bathrooms. We think that Gastelum, who’s of Mexican heritage, took that personally.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction
Joe Pyfer’s UFC 316 odds suggest that he’s a superman who cannot be defeated. But he isn’t. Sure, he did KO a number of opponents, but we also saw that he’s got some weaknesses.
For example, Jack Hermansson beat him by unanimous decision last year after out-boxing him. We believe that Gastelum can do the same.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum